Municipal heating plan for Stuttgart: How can the city of Stuttgart become climate-neutral by 2035?
In order to achieve the ambitious climate protection targets, a legal framework has been created in Baden-Württemberg in which the large district cities must have completed their municipal heating planning by the end of 2023. A municipal heating transformation and therefore the strategy for this can only succeed efficiently if municipal representatives and municipal utilities pull together. The state capital Stuttgart (LHS) has taken on this task together with Stadtwerke Stuttgart (SWS) and their technical expertise. The Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft mbH (FfE) was involved in the process as a neutral body and provided support with its technical expertise and experience from similar projects. The modelling of the scenarios for the development of the heat supply in Stuttgart was also carried out by the FfE using its specially developed FfE heat transformation tool. As part of the project, FfE developed, simulated and analysed two scenarios (target and trend scenario) as the main result. In addition to the transformation paths and the clustering of the city, the necessary investments on the part of the supplier and private households were calculated. Furthermore, the current funding framework of the LHS and the federal government was also taken into account.
The results were already presented during the project period on 29 September 2023 at the Office for Environmental Protection of the LHS and subsequently at a public information event on municipal heat planning on 5 October 2023. The report on the preparation of the municipal heat planning of the state capital Stuttgart was published on 14 December 2023 [1]. The core results and methods of the scenario calculations are described below.
The abridged project report at the bottom provides an overview of the most important methods, assumptions and results of the modelling.
Modelling
Figure 1 shows the schematic representation of the FfE heat transformation tool used. The input data was processed at parcel level. The city was subdivided into a total of 56 neighbourhoods for the creation and better handling of the heat plan. The methodology for identifying these neighbourhoods is based on the analysis of potentials and areas as well as the demand structure. For the modelling, these 56 districts were in turn grouped into twelve clusters according to their characteristics and the desired supply development. As part of the project, a total of around 70,000 parcels of land were analysed and taken into account in the simulation.
In addition to the transformation path, the associated costs and subsidy amounts were also calculated. Figure 2 provides an overview of the decentralised cost calculation process at parcel level.
Target scenario 2035
Figure 3 shows some of the core results of the scenario modelling. In order for the city of Stuttgart to become climate-neutral in 2035, the following parameters were derived:
To achieve a climate-neutral heat supply in 2035, every day
- the heating systems of 15 parcels of land must be replaced and
- 7 land parcels of land must be renovated.
Further information:
Literatur
[1] LHS (2023): Bericht zur Erstellung der kommunalen Wärmeplanung der Landeshauptstadt Stuttgart Fassung vom 14.12.2023 Bericht-kommunale-Waermeplanung-LHS.pdf (stuttgart.de) (abgerufen am 16.02.2024)