Analysis of CO₂ infrastructure requirements in Bavaria

On behalf of vbw – Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e.V., FfE is conducting the study “Analysis of CO₂ infrastructure requirements in Bavaria”. In order to achieve the goal of Bavarian climate neutrality by 2040, unavoidable emissions must be captured. Therefore, the aim of the project is to determine the demand for a Bavarian CO₂ infrastructure for the transport of captured CO₂ to storage sites and to locations for further utilization in a closed carbon cycle.

Motivation and objective

 “By 2040 at the latest, Bavaria shall be climate neutral.”
Art. 2 (2), BayKlimaG [1]

With regard to this Bavarian climate target, the study „Bayernplan Energie 2040“ demands: “Tempo, Tempo, Tempo – An immediate acceleration of the transformation in all sectors – industry, transport, buildings and the energy industry – is necessary to maintain the chance of achieving the target by 2040.”

The comprehensive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions within the next 17 years requires massive efforts. Bavaria will thus exceed both the target of net greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045 at the federal level and the EU target in 2050. The remaining process-related emissions from industry pose a particular challenge here, since unlike energy-related emissions, these cannot be reduced by efficiency measures and energy carrier changes. These emissions, which are therefore unavoidable, must be captured and stored (Carbon Capture & Storage – CCS) or utilized in a closed cycle (Carbon Capture & Utilization – CCU). Since neither on-site storage nor utilization are generally viable solutions, the development of a CO₂ infrastructure for transport is necessary. The conception of such an infrastructure is the reason for this study.

Methodology

The methodology of this study is composed of four steps, as shown in Figure 1.

The framework is the „Bayernplan Energie 2040“  [2] and its scenario „E.plan – Günstige Bedingungen für Strom“. Two basic assumptions are of outstanding importance here:

Assumption 1: Climate neutrality in Bavaria by 2040.

Assumption 2: No migration of industry.

The scenario „E.plan – Günstige Bedingungen für Strom“ serves as the basis for the transformation paths considered. The first methodological step calculates the site-specific CO₂ supply. A distinction is made between industrial CO₂ sources and sites from the energy industry. In industry, processes with unavoidable process-related emissions are eligible for CO₂ capture. The energy industry is represented by waste incineration plants, biomass power plants as well as gas power plants as potential CO₂ sources. The second step is the calculation of the potential CO₂ demand. The future CO₂ demand includes the existing demand on CO₂ for beverages etc. as well as the potential use as feedstock for the production of synthetic hydrocarbons in chemistry . The future material use of synthetic naphtha and methanol, as well as the use of synthetic kerosene are taken into account.

Thirdly, two relevant future scenarios are formed from the possible CO₂ utilization options: On the one hand the storage scenario with a focus on CO₂ storage and, on the other hand the cycle scenario with a focus on CO₂ utilization. The scenario framework thus covers the two extremes of possible future CO₂ utilization, so that the real development is likely to be within this scenario range.

Results

The analysis of this study shows that even with ambitious CO₂ reduction, unavoidable emissions remain. These first require sophisticated capture technologies and then the connection to a CO₂ infrastructure for the transport to potential consumers and storage facilities. The network concept is robust and independent of the scenarios considered (see Figure 2).

CO₂ capture is absolutely essential for the lime and cement industries. They are the industrial sectors with the largest share of unavoidable emissions in Bavaria. The remaining time window until climate neutrality in 2040 requires that already now market-ready capture technologies are relied on or that all upcoming investments are already prepared for the retrofitting of future CO₂ capture “CC-Ready”. Other industries, such as glass or brick production, with smaller unavoidable emission volumes are not yet economically feasible with CO₂ capture.

The energy industry must equip waste incineration plants with CO₂ capture to close the carbon cycles. In addition, CO₂ capture offers the opportunity to achieve negative emissions at sufficiently large biomass power plants, without which a climate-neutral Bavaria is not possible due to remaining emissions, e.g. in glass and brick production, and CO₂ capture rates of < 100 percent.

The feedstock CO₂ use in the chemical industry considered in the cycle scenario represents a theoretical maximum that requires significant additional amounts of electricity. Also for this maximum, the CO₂ supply exceeds the CO₂ demand, so that storage or export of CO₂ will be necessary.

The Bavarian storage capacities require further analysis. In all scenarios considered, they are necessary as a storage option until a connection to a transregional transport network is established. However, since they may be exhausted as early as the early 2040s, export to storage facilities outside Bavaria is necessary in the long term in all scenarios.

The routing of the Bavarian core grid is robust with respect to the development of CO₂ demand in Bavaria and differs only in the extent of the transmission capacities.

Weitere Informationen

• vbw Studie: Analyse CO2-Infrastrukturbedarf in Bayern
• Bayernplan Energie 2040

Literatur

[1] Bayerisches Klimaschutzgesetz (BayKlimaG). In https://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/BayKlimaG. (Abruf am 2023-05-15); Bayern: Bayerische Staatskanzlei, 2020.

[2] Kigle, Stephan: Bayernplan Energie 2040 – Wege zur Treibhausgasneutralität – Abschlussbericht. München: Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft (FfE), 2023.