EEM 2018 - The impact of electrification on the gas sector

Vortrag im Rahmen der EEM vom 27.-29. Juni 2018 in Łódź, Polen

Abstract

Introduction

Substituting fossil fueled appliances through electrical end-use application is considered a promising CO2-emissions reduction possibility. Considering the gas sector on the one hand it could lead to an increase of gas consumption as a consequence of an increased use of gas power stations. On the other hand it may decrease the gas consumption as gas based processes are exchanged by electricity based processes. The impact of electrification on the electricity sector, in contrast to the gas sector, is widely analyzed 1 . However, the effects of electrification on the gas price and European gas flows using a gas market model is still under-researched and consequently the focus of this research paper.

Method

The gas market model “MInGa” (“Market- and. Infrastructure model of the Gas sector”) describes the gas sector using linear optimization to minimize the economic total costs2 . A central input parameter for the model is the European gas consumption. Running a simulation results in a cost-optimized use of the gas infrastructure, containing gas production fields, LNG-terminals (Liquified Natural Gas), European pipelines and storages.

For analysis of the effects that wide spread electrification has on the gas market, a regionalization of the German gas demand at NUTS II1 level is implemented. In each sector, the energy consumption is regionalized by implementing sector specific distribution keys. The household gas consumption is regionalized based on the FfE building model. In the small and medium enterprise sector the gas demand is distributed to NUTS II level via the number of employees. For the industry sector gas demand is regionalized by the real energy consumption of the different industries. The transport sector takes the use of transportation infrastructure into account. Finally the demand of gas power plants is regionalized by the installed capacity.

Results

Continuing a base and an electrification scenario are set up resulting in two different future gas consumptions in Germany in 2030 that consider the regionalization of the different sectors. The total gas consumption in Germany for the base scenario is 600 TWh in 2030. The electrification scenario leads to a lower gas demand of 350 TWh. Evaluating the simulation results for the electrification scenario the gas price in Germany decreases by 0.70 €/MWh. In contrast to the highly decreased gas consumption, the gas price is largely stable considering a current gas price at 17.3 €/MWh 3 . The utilization of domestic gas pipelines increases despite a decrease in domestic gas consumption. This results from the fact that transit flows through Germany towards Western Europe increase.

(1) NUTS II (Nomenclature des Unités territoriales statistiques): geographical system for classification of regions in EU – NUTS II usually has between 800.000 and three million inhabitants.