Modelling transformation pathways for EU27+3 final energy demand using temporally and spatially resolved sector models

Presentation at the 5th AIEE Energy Symposium 15. - 17. December 2020

Vorgetragen am 16.06.2021

In order to quantify possible futures of the European energy system a set of demand and supply-side models is required, which allows for the detailed modelling of sectoral transformation pathways. In this publication, we quantify the qualitative quEU scenario storyline using the five-step word to value procedure.

We subsequently show how the resulting demand-side transformation pathways can be translated to a quantitative framework, with hourly resolution at NUTS-3 level, for each energy end-use sector: industry, households, tertiary and transport. In the quEU scenario, the socio-political context in Europe worsens compared to today and society perceives that the costs of containing climate change outweigh the benefits.

The lack of incentives to promote fuel switch measures beyond today’s trends results in only a moderate phase-in of electric vehicles and heat pumps in the household, tertiary and transport sector. The energy transition in the industrial sector is slowed significantly and solely efficiency improvements are realized, while industry structure and process technologies remain similar to today.

Due to these developments final energy consumption in Europe decreases by 18% from 13,350 TWh in 2020 to 2050, whereas the electricity consumption increases by 14% to 3,500 TWh in 2050. Feedstock demand and process emissions increase by 25 % and 19 % respectively.

Click here for the conference proceedings (p. 187 - 235)

sector specific regionalization

Figure: Regionalized electricity consumption of the four sectors and typical week scaled load profiles for the regions Stockholm and Västra Götaland. Typical weeks are calculated of average hourly electricity scaled load profiles per weekday (holidays are assigned to sundays)

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