Simulation-based forecasting of electric load curve in the 21st century

Motivation and application

The technology and generating capacity of the power plants in a country with a functioning electricity market is a result of the electricity load profile. For the planning of future power plants and considerations on the need of energy storage systems there are load profile forecasts needed. The more detailed these forecasts are, the more precise the plans for the future power plants can be made.

model_scheme_500Development of methods for the preparation of the load profile for 2030

Project objectives and procedure

In this project, an energy model is developed which can generate future electricity load profiles for different supply network and spatial system boundaries (e.g., towns, counties or Germany) up to the year 2030. These load curves help making conclusions for the change of peak loads, or changes of the ratio of the load in the summer to the load in winter.

The project is based on the collection and categorization of load curves, with a detailed description of the objects and the energy consumers, and simulations, e.g. for the electric power requirements of heat pumps.

Scenarios account

In order to cover a wide range of settings, three scenarios were defined:

A reference scenario in which a probable development "business as usual" is assumed.

The aim of the second scenario is to show the possibilities and limits of Demand Side Management and Smart Metering and thus define the limits of a possible development.

In the third scenario a path of a high degree of regional self-sufficiency in the power supply is described. In this scenario Demand Side Management is controlled by the regional availability of electricity. This means exactly opposing regulatory mechanisms in different regions because of the unequal availability of renewable energies. In an hour with lots of wind and clouds in regions with a lot of wind power plants, the DSM will try to utilize the cheap electricity, whereas in other regions with a high proportion of PV due to the clouds too little power is available, so that the DSM system tries to reduce the consumption of electricity.


Programming the time frame for Demand-Side Management (DSM) to control a washing machine



Bayerisches Staatsministerium für
Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst

Bayerisches Staatsministerium für
Wirtschaft, Infrastruktur, Verkehr und Technologie

Industry Partners:

E.ON Energie AG

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