Dynamis – Dynamic and Intersectoral Evaluation of Measures for a Cost-Efficient Decarbonisation of the Energy System

Dynamis Logo 150

Motivation
"Dynamis – ability to induce change"

In the course of the German energy transition, the energy supply is being redesigned pursuing the goal of phasing out nuclear energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Passing the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, the world community also committed itself to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and added supplemental authority to the German efforts.

Various technical and regulatory measures are under consideration to reduce emissions in the energy system. These CO2 abatement measures include amongst others the low-emission provision of energy from renewables, the reduction in demand due to efficient technologies and the electrification of heat and transport by e.g. heat pumps and electromobility. The evaluation of these measures with regard to their cost-efficiency and their emission-saving potential is fundamentally dependent on the boundary conditions of the surrounding energy system. Concurrently, the implementation of such measures always leads to a change in the structure of the entire system and thus to a change in the basis of evaluation of further measures. A purely static consideration of the CO2 abatement costs as a criterion for measure evaluation is therefore not sufficient.

Objective and Methodology

Therefore the goal of the project Dynamis is the development of methods that allow various measures for CO2 abatement to be evaluated with regard to their cost-efficiency and their potential for savings while considering the changing boundary conditions. In addition to the standard technical and economic parameters, the evaluation focuses in particular on the dynamic interdependencies of the measures with the energy system. In order to cope with these dynamic interdependencies, a four-step evaluation approach is pursued in the Dynamis project:

Figure 1

 

While only annual averages are taken into account in the calculation of the conventional static abatement costs in level 1, in level 2 the temporal variability of various parameters (such as electricity prices and specific emissions of the electricity mix) is included as an additional dimension in the evaluation of measures. In the following two levels, the evaluation focuses in particular on the dynamic interdependencies of the measures with one another and with the surrounding energy system. This takes into account, on the one hand, the effects of the measures in the respective energy consumption sectors - industry, domestic, commercial and transport (level 3) and, on the other hand, the interdependencies of the measures with the energy supply sector (level 4).

The basis for evaluating the measures via this four-level approach is a comprehensive model landscape. In addition to the supply-side energy system models ISAaR and MiNGA, the model landscape also includes so-called bottom-up stock-and-flow models for mapping the relationships in the energy consumption sectors. In order to enable a continuous update of the data and models, the entire model landscape is integrated into the standardized database structure of the FREM (FfE Regionalized Energy System Model).

 

Figure 2 neu

 

Summary

Figure 3

Funding and project partners

This study is being carried out by a project consortium comprising the Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft e.V., the Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft mbH and the Chair of Energy Economy and Application Technology of the Technical University of Munich.

The study is funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) (grant number: 03ET4037A). This funding initiative is part of the 6th Energy Research Program of the Federal Government, key area system analysis.

Beside the BMWi, 13 companies from the fields of energy supply, mobility and chemistry support the research project both financially and with data and individual practical experience. Moreover they will evaluate the results and examine implementation options.

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