The project eXtremOS started on the 1st of January 2018

In eXtremOS (XOS) the FfE investigates the effect of extreme technological, regulatory and social developments on the value of flexibility in the European electricity market. The FFE is supported by its subsidiary FfE GmbH, The Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, the Chairs of Energy Economics and Application Technology (IfE) as well as Renewable and Sustainable Energy Systems (ENS) of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Berlin based think tank Agora Energiewende.

The project is funded by the BMWi (reference number 03ET4062). Additional funds are contributed by a consortium of nine industrial partners.

Objective

The main objective of XOS is the development and application of methods that allow for the investigation of the value of flexibility. The impacts of the European electricity market coupling on the value of flexibility in the context of extreme technological, regulatory and social developments within the electrical neighbours of Germany are the core focus of the project.

Project content

The investigations range from distribution grid to transmission grid level. All options of sector coupling are taken into account and the global effects of scenarios depicting extreme technological developments are examined. The definition of such extreme scenarios build the basis of this project. To this end, several approaches are used to develop a broad spectrum of scenarios. These include the Delphi method, the creation of a CIB matrix and stakeholder workshops. A particular challenge for the project is the parameterization of qualitative extreme scenarios. The latter is a prerequisite for quantifying the defined scenarios and defining input data for use in the simulation runs.

Starting point for the quantification of extreme scenarios is the construction of an EU-wide database. The data base used in eXtremOS builds on the FfE-Regionalized Energy System Model “FREM”. The interaction of individual components of the energy system is simulated with different models for the quantified scenarios. These models are e. g. the integrated simulation model for plant deployment and expansion planning with regionalization (ISAaR), FREM, the market and infrastructure model of the gas industry (MInGa) and the FfE distribution network simulation model (GridSim).

Figure: Projekt overview

Routing

The project is sub-divided into five work packages: (1)"Elaboration of qualitative extreme developments", (2)"EU-FREM", (3)"Quantification of extreme developments", (4)"Modelling and evaluation" and (5)"Public relations and ad-hoc analyses".

In WP1 socio-technological scenarios are developed by KIT ITAS using the Delphi method. Furthermore, stakeholder workshops are held by Agora Energiewende and what-if analyses are carried out. Agora Energiewende acts as a subcontractor of the FfE in the scenario development process through the conception and implementation of international stakeholder workshops.

The derived extreme scenarios are clustered and selected scenarios are then examined in more detail. In order to implement the scenarios, European data is collected in WP2 and FREM is expanded to EU-FREM. The model is subsequently used to quantify the scenarios in WP3.

The data is then fed into the models for mapping the electricity market, distribution and transmission grid (FfE e. V.) and the gas market (FfE GmbH) in WP4. For this purpose, the models are extended by the required components. In order to keep the computing time at a minimum, the ENS will develop a variety of decomposition methods.

Furthermore, the IfE will develop a model with which the analyzed extreme scenarios can be set into a global context. Effects of extreme events, which can be derived from the model results, are then evaluated by KIT ITAS and FfE GmbH. In addition, WP5 carries out ad hoc analyses to investigate the impact of current economic policy decisions and carries out public relations work.