SoPHa – Sector Model of Private Households

The sector model of private households (SoPHa) can be described as a stock-and-flow model that simulates the change (flow) in sector states (stock) for the period from 2020 to 2050. Figure 1 shows a schematic overview of the stock-and-flow character of the model. The initial state of the household sector defines the starting point of the simulation. Based on this, the changes in the sector states can be simulated in year-by-year simulations, taking into account sector-inherent cause-effect relationships and limitations.

Figure 1: Schematic overview of the stock-and-flow sector model

The overall objective of SoPHa is to determine the costs, emissions, and load profiles of the sector for given implementation levels of CO2 reduction measures. On this basis, the feedback effects of the measures on the energy system can be described. A dynamic assessment of these measures can be performed in combination with the supply sector models (ISAaR and MINGA). The model’s focus is on the provision of space heating and hot water demand due to the high shares of emissions.

Figure 2 shows the four modules of SoPHa or their main tasks and results. The modules can be divided both thematically (top: buildings, bottom: heating systems) and temporally (left: annually, right: hourly). The development of the building stock and the simulation of the useful energy load curves are prerequisites for developing the plant stock and the use of the heating systems.

Figure 2: Overview of the four modules of the SoPHa

SoPHa was developed and used for the first time in the Dynamis project to quantify the repercussions of the private household sector on the supply sector depending on the implementation of measures. The model is one of four “final energy” sector models.


Relevant publications: