PriHM & TerM – Sector models for buildings
What are PriHM & TerM used for?
The PriHM (private households model) and TerM (tertiary model) models reflect the transformation of the private household and tertiary sectors towards climate neutrality. PriHM and TerM map the final energy consumption of the building sector by energy carrier and application with a spatial resolution on NUTS-3 level and an hourly temporal resolution for Europe. Applications include, for example, the provision of space heating or information and communication technology (ICT). The scenarios calculated with PriHM and TerM provide insights into the future development of the building sector and heating system stocks in Europe and serve as input for the energy system model ISAaR.
The following key questions can be answered with PriHM and TerM:
- What impact will different transformation pathways of the building sector have on the European energy system of the future?
- What role do different applications and energy carriers play?
- What does the ramp-up of climate-neutral heating technologies look like in the individual European countries?
- What impact do efficiency measures such as building envelope renovation have?
- How do political conditions and EU targets affect the transformation of the building sector?
Modelling
In PriHM and TerM, a distinction is made between eight applications based on the FfE application-oriented energy balances: space heating, hot water, process heating, process cooling, climate cold, lighting, ICT and mechanical energy. TerM also includes the expansion of data centers as a separate application. Moreover, TerM differentiates between nine economic sectors. In context of the FfE model landscape, both demand sectors together are also referred to as the building sector or model, as the structural design of both models is identical in parts and the energy consumption of buildings also predominates in the tertiary sector.
A high temporal and spatial resolution is achieved through a modular structure (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). Starting from the status quo, the transformation module calculates the final energy consumption by year, energy carrier and application. The regionalization module distributes the consumption per energy carrier and application at NUTS-3 level. Together with the load profile module, this results in hourly load profiles by energy carrier and application. The spatial area covered by the analysis includes the European Union as well as Great Britain, Norway and Switzerland (EU27+3).
Figure 3 and Figure 4 show exemplary model results from the TransHyDE project. Figure 3 shows the development of final energy consumption by energy carrier and application in Europe (EU27+3). Figure 4 shows the regionalization of electricity demand for heat pumps and NUTS-3 level.
History
The foundations for PriHM and TerM were developed in the eXtremOS project, from which the basic model structure and the integration of the model into the FfE model landscape emerged. Extensive adjustments, particularly to the transformation module, were made in the Bayernplan Energie 2040 and in the Energiesystemanalyse – Bayern klimaneutral projects. Modelling with a focus on Europe as a whole was carried out in the TransHyDE project. Detailed analyses of components of the models were carried out in other projects, such as the supplementary study for the Network Development Plan Electricity 2025 “Projection and regionalization of technologies for the supply of building heat in Germany”. PriHM and TerM are also being used as part of the FfE trend scenario.
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