01.08.2024

Series of articles: The Path to Climate-Neutral Heavy-Duty Transport – Ramp-up pathways to climate neutral heavy-duty transport

To achieve Germany’s climate protection goals, emissions from heavy commercial vehicles must be reduced to net zero by 2045. With increasingly powerful batteries, a growing charging infrastructure, and rising economies of scale, the conditions are favorable to initiate the transformation towards climate-neutrality in the heavy commercial vehicle sector. This transformation is no longer a niche topic. The logistics industry is deeply engaged with the transition and is awaiting the entry of climate-neutral vehicles into the mass market.

The transformation faces both technical and infrastructural problems as well as energy and economic challenges. On the technical and infrastructural side, the primary issues are the lack of charging infrastructure and the associated speed of energy infrastructure expansion. Economically, the high initial investments for infrastructure and vehicles are the biggest obstacles. However, there are ways to address these challenges. Optimized, bidirectional charging at depots can help reduce costs. Additionally, the symbiosis of PV systems and public charging during midday presents a promising solution to meet charging needs.

In this five-part series, we will delve into various aspects of the transformation to a climate-neutral commercial vehicle sector, focusing primarily on battery-electric commercial vehicles.

In this part of the series, potential ramp-up pathways towards climate-neutral heavy-duty transport and their modeling are described. Within the framework of a discussion paper, three ambitious scenarios analyze and compare possible developments in the heavy commercial vehicle segment. Based on this, an assessment is made of the role MCS can play in the electrification of the entire heavy-duty transport sector. Finally, the transformation of heavy-duty transport is placed within the context of the entire transport sector.

The analyses illustrate that the electrification of the heavy commercial vehicle subsector represents a significant lever to reduce CO2 emissions in the transport sector, even though the number of forecasted vehicles is expected to increase significantly in the future (see figure). Megawatt charging is the technological enabler that makes battery-electric commercial vehicles competitive with possible alternatives from a logistics perspective, as it allows charging during regular driving breaks.

Figure: Stock for heavy commercial vehicles by driving distance (EFS = single trip distance)

In the upcoming, second part of the series, we will address the fast-charging infrastructure for electrified heavy-duty transport. We will explore the peak load and energy demand resulting from the need for fast-charging infrastructure for heavy commercial vehicles.