Series of articles: Results and challenges in the creation of transformation plans

To achieve Germany’s climate targets (65% reduction in emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2045), all sectors, including industry, must make their contribution. In the past, some measures to increase energy efficiency and save energy have already been implemented in the industrial sector. The next step is now to transform the energy supply as completely as possible. Transformation plans are being developed to systematically implement this and provide companies with support.

Results and challenges in the creation of transformation plans

Although each transformation plan is individually tailored to the specific conditions of a company, certain patterns can be identified in the results. Despite the different company structures, some recurring findings have emerged from the completed and ongoing transformation plans of the FfE:

• Renewable energies: These are often economically advantageous as their electricity generation costs are lower compared to grid electricity purchases.
• Operating costs vs. investments: In an economic analysis over the entire period, the variable operating costs usually dominate compared to the initial investment.
• Focus on heat: The area of space and process heat supply is often at the heart of the transformation in companies, as implementation is sometimes more complex here than in the electricity sector.
  • Even if hydrogen and synthetic fuels represent an option for generating high-temperature process heat in the medium and long term, they currently play a subordinate role in most transformation plans. This is mainly due to uncertainties regarding their availability in terms of time, the required infrastructure, expected quantities and the current potentially high costs compared to other energy sources.
  • Efficient use of existing waste heat is of great importance in order to improve efficiency at the site and reduce external energy procurement.
• Non-technical added value: Externally moderated workshops enable in-depth internal discussions between different departments and integrate specialist contributions from neutral external participants in order to overcome existing blockades. In addition, the various groups learn about the essential and relevant selection criteria of their colleagues and are encouraged to consider new perspectives in the subsequent evaluation.

Challenges

In analyzing the available data and findings, some recurring challenges have emerged that significantly influence the implementation of transformation plans. These challenges are divided into three problem areas: Data availability and quality, technology availability and long-term perspectives.

• Data availability and quality

There are major differences between the various companies when it comes to collecting and processing energy technology data. Often, the data required in the necessary level of detail (e.g. at plant or process level) and temporal resolution (such as hourly values) for the development of transformation strategies is not available or not available in full. In such cases, synthetic load profiles often have to be used, which can affect the accuracy and resilience of the results.

• Technology availability

Another obstacle is the availability of the required technologies. These are not market-ready in all areas and for all companies. A frequently cited example is the replacement of natural gas-fired high-temperature process heat. In some cases, electrification is not feasible due to technical process conditions. Various alternatives must be considered here and other possible options identified. However, final decisions on implementation can often only be made at a later date.

• Long-term perspective

Long-term planning up to the year 2045 is associated with many uncertainties. Developments in terms of technologies, investments, energy prices and economic and political conditions are difficult to predict, but are crucial for the evaluation and feasibility of transformation plans. These uncertainties require regular review and adjustment of both the transformation plan and the underlying data to ensure that the strategies remain relevant and feasible.

Successful implementation of transformation plans requires continuous improvement in data quality, access to the necessary technologies and flexible planning in the face of long-term uncertainties. Overcoming these challenges can ensure a sustainable and efficient transformation.