Markt-, Umfeld- und technische Anforderungsanalyse von Großwärmepumpen in Fernwärmenetzen

Large-scale heat pumps are becoming a key technology for the decarbonization of district heating and local heating networks as part of the heating transition. However, their economic and system-supportive operation increasingly depends on the ability to strategically utilize electrical flexibility across multiple electricity markets. This publication examines the market-related, technical, and systemic requirements for the multi-market optimization of large-scale heat pumps. Particular focus is placed on the transition from predominantly heat-driven operation to automated, forecast-based operational control, as well as on participation in day-ahead, intraday, and balancing energy markets. Key influencing factors analyzed include heat demand, electricity price and weather forecasts, technical constraints of heat pumps, COP dependencies, ramping behavior, and the role of thermal energy storage.

The SysMMO project addresses these challenges by developing an integrated optimization and operational framework that systematically combines large-scale heat pumps, thermal storage systems, market mechanisms, and grid constraints. The objective is to unlock existing flexibility potentials in an economically viable manner, reduce operating costs, and simultaneously contribute to grid stability and overall system efficiency. The analysis shows that large-scale heat pumps generally possess the technical prerequisites for multi-market optimization. However, successful implementation requires a highly automated system architecture, robust forecasting methods, and a realistic representation of thermal and market-related boundary conditions.

Key findings and theses:

• Large-scale heat pumps will play a central role in the heating transition: District heating networks and thermal storage capacities are expected to expand significantly, with large-scale heat pumps providing a substantial share of future heat supply and supporting the decarbonization of the heating sector.
• Current operating strategies often utilize only part of the available flexibility potential: In practice, large-scale heat pumps are frequently operated primarily according to heat demand or day-ahead electricity prices. Short-term electricity markets and grid-supportive operating strategies are still only considered to a limited extent.
• Participation in multiple electricity markets places high demands on planning and operation: Different markets with varying trading horizons and products require automated optimization processes and reliable forecasting capabilities.
• Large-scale heat pumps generally provide the technical foundation for multi-market optimization: The actual level of exploitable flexibility depends largely on plant design, particularly the choice of compressor technology, control strategy, and integration of thermal storage systems.