German electricity prices on the EPEX Spot exchange in 2025
- German electricity prices rose again in 2025. The upward trend had already become apparent in the previous year.
- With almost 575 hours of negative prices, 2025 will once again significantly exceed last year’s historic record (459).
- Volatility on the day-ahead market remains high: the average daily spread in 2025 is €130/MWh.
- Spot markets in transition: EPEX Spot is expanding its market design. Two additional intraday auctions and a higher time resolution in day-ahead trading are bringing more dynamism to trading.
German base electricity price level rises in 2025
In 2025, the German electricity price level rose compared to the previous year. The upward trend had already become apparent in the second half of 2024 and represents a reversal of the post-crisis price recovery seen in previous years (see analysis of electricity prices in 2024). The annual average base load (EPEX Base price) in 2025 will exceed the previous year’s figure by around 16% at €92.2/MWh, but will remain below the 2023 level. In line with the development of the base load, the average prices for off-peak load (average price for all hours that are not peak hours) rose to €85.5/MWh. The sharpest increase was recorded in peak load prices (average price on weekdays from Monday to Friday between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m.), which averaged around €104.1/MWh in 2025. Figure 1 shows the development of base, peak, and off-peak electricity prices for the years 2017 to 2025.
The ratio of peak to base prices in 2025 will be 1.13, slightly above the previous year’s figure (1.11) but still well below the 2020 level (1.23). Since 2020, the products have been converging more and more. The increasing price convergence is largely due to the rising share of renewable energies, which means that high and low price phases are increasingly caused by volatile generation and are no longer primarily determined by consumption.
Intraday PV production in particular lowers the price level of the peak product, but the temporal feed-in profile of wind can also have a dampening or amplifying effect on prices. In 2025, the share of renewable energies in total generation averaged around 62%, slightly below the previous year’s level (63%). Wind remained the largest source of electricity generation in 2025 in terms of share, but the year turned out to be a comparatively weak wind year. In winter (December to February) in particular, wind generation was 35% lower than in 2024, resulting in periods of very high prices [2].
Shift in key price drivers continues
While electricity prices in 2025 have risen significantly overall compared to the previous year, the average daily day-ahead price shows a downward trend until the middle of the year. As shown in Figure 2, the price trend in the first half of the year correlates with the development of the gas price. In 2025, the gas price level (THE Day-Ahead) was around €37.2/MWh, which is higher than in the previous year (€34.6/MWh). However, the average price level fell over the course of the year. With an average gas share in the electricity mix of around 12.5%, the gas price will continue to have a noticeable impact on the base level of the electricity price in 2025.
In the second half of the year, electricity prices rose again. However, this increase was not reflected in gas prices, which continued to fall in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the generation mix shows an increasing seasonality of gas prices as an influencing factor, depending on weather-related renewable generation. Since gas-fired power plants are more often price-setting when renewable energy generation is lower, there is a seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, further exacerbated by a rainy July and windless winter months. However, this was mitigated by the decline in gas prices.
The shift in the key price drivers in the electricity market thus continued in 2025: While the increasing seasonality of renewable generation proved to be an important influencing factor over the course of the year, short-term pricing, which was characterized by daily feed-in characteristics and weather-related fluctuations in wind and solar production, was once again clearly dominated by volatile renewable feed-in and significantly overshadowed the influence of the gas price. Figure 2 also illustrates the development of the CO2 price (EU CO2 allowances 2026), which recorded a significant price increase in the second half of the year. Its influence on the electricity price is related to the emission factor of the electricity mix. The higher the emission factor in an electricity mix, the stronger the influence of the CO2 price development on the price level. The development of the CO2 price is therefore becoming increasingly important, particularly in the event of a delay in the decarbonization of the electricity system.
Dark periods in 2025 in the media spotlight
As in previous years, prices in 2025 will be characterized by significant fluctuations in electricity prices over the course of the year and day. The characteristics of the hourly day-ahead market (quarterly from October 25) and the quarterly continuous intraday trading in Figure 3 illustrate this development. In 2025, significant price spreads will continue to characterize the course of the day, especially in months with high PV feed-in. At midday, high PV yields ensure low prices, whereas price peaks occur in the early evening when demand remains high but supply from renewables is already declining. This was much less pronounced in July 2025, which was relatively rainy and characterized by lower PV generation than in the previous year.
In 2025, longer-term fluctuations in generation and consumption will become increasingly important. The year begins with high prices due to low renewable energy feed-in and high demand (often referred to as a dark doldrums) in January and February, which significantly influence pricing on the markets. Record prices were recorded on all markets in January. On January 20, 2025, the day-ahead market reached an annual record price of around €583/MWh. On the continuous intraday market, the maximum was reached on January 7, 2025, when weighted average prices (bid price procedure) of up to €1,056/MWh occurred. In November and December 2025, dark doldrums also led to high-price phases on the exchanges. These had already made headlines in 2024, prompting the Federal Cartel Office to take a closer look at price formation during dark doldrums [4]. In October 2025, the Federal Network Agency and the Federal Cartel Office published their findings and found no evidence of market abuse or capacity withholding [7].
The opposite of a dark doldrums, known as a “light breeze,” also occurred in 2025. The surplus from renewable energies combined with low electricity demand lowers electricity prices, but also requires curtailment (according to Section 51 of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), already after one hour with negative prices) in order to avoid overloading the power grid and leads to negative electricity prices, causing PV market values to drop significantly. With the discussion about dark doldrums and light breezes, the compensation of long-term generation fluctuations is coming to the forefront of public debate. Short-term flexibilities such as battery storage can already compensate for fluctuations over several hours. For longer periods, however, solutions are needed that can compensate for large-scale and long-lasting energy surpluses or deficits, for example through various forms of long-term storage, expanded system flexibilities, or other options for providing secure power. In January 2026, the EU approved Germany’s construction of 12 GW of new gas-fired power plant capacity to bridge dark doldrums.
2025 brings a new record for negative prices
The number of negative prices rose again compared to 2024, amounting to around 575 hours on the day-ahead market in 2024 (see Table 1). Negative prices occurred in 2025, particularly in the summer months, which were characterized by PV generation, and in the transitional months on days with low overall price levels. Strongly negative prices occurred particularly at midday during the summer months, with a record low of around -250 €/MWh on the day-ahead market on May 11, 2025. Sundays were characterized by high PV generation and low consumption, which meant that for consumers with dynamic electricity tariffs, the price of electricity, including taxes and levies, actually became negative during this period, so that they were paid for their electricity consumption. However, extremely negative prices are generally rare. As shown in Figure 4, the majority of negative prices in 2025, as in previous years, were between €0 and €-5/MWh.
In our electricity price analysis for 2024, we discussed why many renewable energy plants continue to operate despite negative prices. With the Solar Peak Act of February 2025, the value to be applied for calculating the market premium for EEG-subsidized plants that went into operation after the cut-off date will be set to zero from the first negative hour onwards. This brought forward the originally planned gradual reduction of the permissible negative hours (2 hours from 2026, 1 hour from 2027) [5]. However, this regulation does not apply to plants with a fixed feed-in tariff. Depending on the commissioning date, different regulations also apply to old plants (see: article on negative electricity prices).
According to the market master data register, at the end of 2025, 81.3 GW, or around 70% of PV systems, received a fixed feed-in tariff or a market premium without restriction by the hourly rule and thus had little or no incentive to respond to market signals. For wind turbines, the figure was 46.6 GW, or around 60%. Although the percentage of plants without restrictions has fallen, in absolute terms the installed capacity of new plants with feed-in tariffs has risen to 128 GW compared to the previous year (120 GW). The issue of existing plants was taken into account in the form of a bonus scheme, whereby operators of existing plants who voluntarily reduce output in line with the stricter provisions of the new Section 51 of the EEG 2023 in the event of negative prices can claim additional compensation. However, this is currently still subject to state aid restrictions and therefore cannot yet be applied [8].
The spot market design is changing
Not only are the characteristics of the spot market changing, but its fundamental design is also undergoing transformation. Back in June 2024, the intraday auction IDA1 at 2:00 p.m. on the previous day (D-1) was supplemented by two further auctions (IDA2: D-1, 10:00 p.m. and IDA3: D, 11:00 a.m.). In addition, in 2025, the day-ahead market was converted from hourly to 15-minute products. We have prepared a detailed analysis of the effects of these changes in a separate article. We are also adding the new auctions to our annual reporting.
Table 1 shows the development of extreme prices since 2020 on the day-ahead market, intraday auctions (supplemented by IDA2 and IDA3 since June 2024), and the continuous intraday market (15-minute products). In line with the overall increase in price levels, the number of prices above €100/MWh also rose significantly compared to the previous year in all markets considered, but remained below the 2023 level. Compared to the previous year, the number of extremely negative prices on the day-ahead market has increased slightly, while it has decreased on the intraday markets (IDA1 and continuous market).
Table 1: Analysis of the number of negative prices and very high prices on the German spot markets in the years 2020 to 2025 according to data from EPEX SPOT [1]
Increase in volatility on the day-ahead market, decrease on the intraday markets
Spot market volatility will remain high in 2025. Table 2 shows the maximum hourly and daily price spread as well as the intra-hourly and intra-day standard deviation of electricity prices on the day-ahead and intraday markets for 2025 and previous years. The mean standard deviations are calculated using the annual mean of the standard deviations of the electricity price per day or hour.
In 2025, the average daily price spread on the day-ahead market rose again, reaching €130.4/MWh. The intraday standard deviation also reached a three-year high of €36.9/MWh. With the day-ahead switch to additional quarter-hourly products, we are also adding hourly values to the statistics. However, due to the short observation period (switch in October 2024), these are currently still of limited significance.
Another development can be seen in the IDA1 intraday auction and the continuous intraday market, both of which recorded a significant decline in the daily price spread and standard deviation compared with the previous year. As in previous years, their hourly volatility characteristics have also continued to decline. This decline may have been further exacerbated by the introduction of quarter-hourly prices on the DA market, as this eliminates the need for intra-hourly replenishment due to different product granularities, as explained in our article on the changeover.
Table 2: Analysis of the price spread and standard deviation of electricity prices on German spot markets from 2020 to 2025 based on data from EPEX SPOT [1]
The overall high price volatility on the German electricity markets over the course of the day and the seasons will continue to highlight the urgent need for short- and long-term flexibility in the electricity system in 2025. For battery storage in particular, high price volatility remains a strong incentive for arbitrage. By the end of 2025, installed battery storage capacity will have increased more than sixteenfold compared to 2020 (1.5 GWh), reaching almost 25 GWh. Demand remains high, particularly for large-scale battery storage systems, which will have reached an installed capacity of 3.9 GWh by the end of 2025. However, a large proportion of existing battery capacity is home storage, which is mostly not market-active. In view of increasing grid connection restrictions, grid-oriented storage implementation will be crucial to ensure comprehensive provision of flexibility and efficient support for the overall system.
We will publish an analysis of European day-ahead prices in the near future.
Weitere Informationen
- Sawtooth pattern on the day-ahead market: Effects of the switch to 15-minute products
- German electricity prices on EPEX Spot 2024
- Negative electricity prices – How many renewable energy systems will run through?
- Large-scale Battery Storage Cooperation
Literatur:
[1] EPEX SPOT. 2024. “Market data“, https://www.epexspot.com/en/market-data[2] Energy-Charts. 2024. „Anteil Erneuerbarer Energien“, https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/renewable_share/chart.htm[3] EEX European Energy Exchange. 2024. „Spot market data – THE“, https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/natural-gas/spot[4] Handelsblatt. 2025. „Energie: Kartellamt überwacht die aktuell hohen Strompreise“. https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energie-kartellamt-ueberwacht-die-aktuell-hohen-strompreise/100098047.html.[5] Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG 2023). § 51 Verringerung des Zahlungsanspruchs bei negativen Preisen. Fassung vom 01.01.2023.[6] EPEX SPOT. 2024. “Intraday Auctions (IDAs) were implemented across Europe on 13 June 2024”,https://www.epexspot.com/en/news/intraday-auctions-idas-were-implemented-across-europe-13-june-2024[7] Bundesnetzagentur und Bundeskartellamt. 2025. „Ergebnis der Untersuchung von Preisspitzen im kurzfristigen Stromgroßhandel im November und Dezember 2024“. https://www.bundeskartellamt.de/SharedDocs/Publikation/DE/Sonstiges/Untersuchungsergebnis_Preisspitzen.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3[8] BMWE. 2025. “FAQ zur Energierechtsnovelle zur Vermeidung von Stromspitzen und zum Biomassepaket“. https://www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE/Dossier/ErneuerbareEnergien/faq-zur-energierechtsnovelle-zur-vermeidung-von-stromspitzen-und-zum-biomassepaket.html
Fußnoten:
1Ab der Day-Ahead Markt Umstellung auf Viertelstunden im Oktober 2025 werden vier negative Viertelstunden als eine negative Stunde gezählt.
2 Die IDA3 Auktion bezieht sich nur auf die zweite Tageshälfte des Handlungstags (12:00 – 24:00 Uhr)
3 Zum 01.10.2025 wurden die europäischen Day-Ahead (DA)-Märkte auf 15‑Minuten-Handelsprodukte umgestellt. In der Tabelle werden daher sowohl Stunden sowie Viertelstunden des Gesamtjahres dargestellt. Dafür erfolgte eine entsprechende Umrechnung der Stunden- in Viertelstundenprodukte (vor Oktober 2025) bzw. Viertelstunden- in Stundenprodukte (ab Oktober 2025).
4Keine vollständigen Jahresdaten (ab 10/25 (DA) bzw. ab 07/24 (IDA2 und IDA3)
