The flexibility divide—How socioeconomic conditions shape grid-based flexibility in Germany
Using flexibility in distribution grids is discussed as a means to avoid or reduce congestion and thereby prevent or postpone the need for grid expansion. Various scenarios assume the increasing adoption of controllable loads, particularly electric vehicles/charging points and heat pumps. However, one aspect has so far been neglected: how the deployment of these technologies varies depending on the population characteristics within the respective grid area.
This paper analyzes which socioeconomic factors influence the adoption of charging points, heat pumps, home storage systems, and PV installations in low-voltage grids. The following factors are identified as decisive:
- Income
- Share of the population with an academic degree
- Share of the population aged between 25 and 50 years
Using clustering, socioeconomic population groups are determined, and the historical adoption of controllable devices within these groups is analyzed. Based on this, a correction factor is derived that adjusts the baseline flexibility potential for socioeconomic effects. This factor is applied to different reference grids and target years, allowing us to determine the variance in flexibility potential depending on the year of consideration, socioeconomic characteristics of the grid area, and grid structure.
The results show that flexibility potential varies significantly depending on the socioeconomic group and the type of grid considered. For electric vehicles, differences range from −22% to +64%, while for heat pumps, the potential varies between −25% and +30% depending on socioeconomic parameters (see Figure 2).
These effects are analyzed for individual grid types to also capture the impact of structural conditions on flexibility potential. It becomes evident that areas with medium to high population density offer higher flexibility potential than sparsely populated regions, as well as areas with mixed consumer groups and commercial operations.
In conclusion, for an efficient reinforcement of low-voltage grids, not only technical and structural aspects but also socioeconomic factors must be considered. The full analysis has been published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science by Elsevier and is available for download here.
