Development of Energy and CO2-Prices

Price developments on energy markets – especially electricity and gas – received a high level of public attention, particularly at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Even though energy and CO2 prices have fallen significantly since then, the development of energy prices continues to be the subject of ongoing debate, particularly with regard to political measures for decarbonization. To analyze the price trends, a daily updated illustration is published here, which shows the development of the futures markets for electricity and gas, CO2 prices and oil prices.

Ongoing price development in 2024

Figure 1: Price developments on the futures markets for electricity, gas and CO2, as well as the oil market for 2024 [1, 2, 3, 4]

Price development in 2023

Figure 2: Price developments on the futures markets for electricity, gas and CO2, as well as the oil market for 2023 [1, 2, 3, 4]

Price development in 2022

Figure 3: Price developments on the futures markets for electricity, gas and CO2, as well as the oil market for 2022 [1, 2, 3, 4]

Products displayed

The products shown in the diagram are briefly presented and described below.

Electricity and gas

The development of electricity and gas prices is shown for the products base 2023 and following month. Base 2023 refers to a continuous supply of electricity or gas over the entire period traded, in this case for the year 2023. The following month refers to the price traded on the power exchange for a continuous supply in the next month. In January, for example, the ” following month” is used to trade a continuous delivery for February. [2, 3]


Market developments in emissions trading are reflected in the EU emission allowances (EUA) for the year 2023. The price represents the price for the right to emit one ton of CO2 in the 4th trading period of the EU ETS. The 4th trading period covers the years 2021 to 2030. An emission allowance traded for the year 2023 that is not used is automatically transferred to the next due future (year 2024) after the expiry date in December 2023. [1, 6]

Oil Price

The oil price development is represented by the OPEC basket price. This is the average of the prices of a selection of OPEC oil products [4]. The prices refer to direct delivery and are stated in US dollars per barrel.

Influence of renewable energy feed-in on the electricity price

The invasion of Ukraine has fueled the discussion about accelerating the expansion of renewable energy sources and moreover given it a new direction. The so far mainly ecological reasons for an expansion were complemented on the one hand by the political-strategic argument to avoid dependencies on often non-democratically led countries. In addition, the sharp price increases not only on the gas markets but also on the electricity markets led to a new assessment of the costs of electricity generation. Production by renewable energy sources with stable marginal costs close to zero has a decisive advantage over fossil energy sources, which are sometimes subject to strong price fluctuations that can also only be predicted to a limited extent.

This relationship between electricity prices and the feed-in of renewable energy sources is shown in Figure 2. Here, for the year 2022, the day-ahead prices of the weekdays Monday to Friday are related to the respective feed-in of solar and wind generation (onshore and offshore). The hours from 10 am to 1 pm were mapped, which have a comparable load level. Overall, the standard deviation of the load level over all hours is 6.3 GW for a mean value of 67.4 GW.

Figure 2: Correlation day-ahead prices and feed-in of renewables for October to December 2022, working days 10 am to 1 pm

It becomes visible that with a low feed-in from renewables, considerably higher electricity prices occur than with a high RE feed-in. In these cases, renewables push power plants with high marginal costs out of the supply curve (merit order) due to their low marginal costs. This also tends to lower the price-setting bid and thus the electricity price (merit order effect).


[1] European Energy Exchange (EEX), „EU ETS Spot, Futures & Options,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/de/maerkte/umweltprodukte/eu-ets-spot-futures-options.
[2] European Energy Exchange (EEX), „Gas: Futures market data,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.powernext.com/futures-market-data.
[3] European Energy Exchange (EEX), „Power Futures,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/strom/futures.
[4] Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), „OPEC Basket Price,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm.
[5] GEMB Gesellschaft für Emissionsmanagement und Beratung mbH, „Emissionshändler.com – Die Handelsperioden,“ 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.emissionshaendler.com/de/eu-emissionswissen/eua-im-kreislauf/die-handelsperioden. [Zugriff am 07.04.2022].