Development of Energy and CO2-Prices
Price developments on energy markets – especially electricity and gas – are currently the subject of intense political debate. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has once again raised the price level on the energy markets, which was already significantly higher than in previous years. For the analysis of these price developments, a weekly updated diagram will be published on this page, which shows the development of the futures markets for electricity and gas, the CO2-prices, as well as the oil prices. The date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is highlighted thereby.
The products shown in the diagram are briefly presented and described below.
Electricity and gas
The development of electricity and gas prices is shown for the following year and following month. The following year, described by the products Base 2023, or Base 2024 respectively refer to a continuous supply of electricity or gas over the entire period traded, in this case for the year 2023 or 2024 respectively. The following month refers to the price traded on the power exchange for a continuous supply in the next month. In January, for example, the ” following month” is used to trade a continuous delivery for February. [2, 3]
Market developments in emissions trading are reflected in the EU emission allowances (EUA) for the following year, so the year 2023, or the year 2024 respectively. The price represents the price for the right to emit one ton of CO2 in the 4th trading period of the EU ETS. The 4th trading period covers the years 2021 to 2030. An emission allowance traded for the year 2023 that is not used is automatically transferred to the next due future (year 2024) after the expiry date in December 2023. [1, 6]
The oil price development is represented by the OPEC basket price. This is the average of the prices of a selection of OPEC oil products . The prices refer to direct delivery and are stated in US dollars per barrel.
Influence of renewable energy feed-in on the electricity price
The invasion of Ukraine has fueled the discussion about accelerating the expansion of renewable energy sources and moreover given it a new direction. The so far mainly ecological reasons for an expansion were complemented on the one hand by the political-strategic argument to avoid dependencies on often non-democratically led countries. In addition, the sharp price increases not only on the gas markets but also on the electricity markets led to a new assessment of the costs of electricity generation. Production by renewable energy sources with stable marginal costs close to zero has a decisive advantage over fossil energy sources, which are sometimes subject to strong price fluctuations that can also only be predicted to a limited extent.
This relationship between electricity prices and the feed-in of renewable energy sources is shown in Figure 2. Here, for a time period of three months, the day-ahead prices of the weekdays Monday to Friday are related to the respective feed-in of solar and wind generation (onshore and offshore). The hours from 10 am to 1 pm were mapped, which have a comparable load level. Overall, the standard deviation of the load level over all hours is 6.3 GW for a mean value of 65.6 GW.
It becomes visible that with a low feed-in from renewables, considerably higher electricity prices occur than with a high RE feed-in. In these cases, renewables push power plants with high marginal costs out of the supply curve (merit order) due to their low marginal costs. This also tends to lower the price-setting bid and thus the electricity price (merit order effect).
- Deutsche Strompreise an der Börse EPEX Spot in 2021 – FfE München
- Deutsche Strompreise an der Börse EPEX Spot in 2020 – FfE München
- Wie können Strompreise für die bessere Abschätzung von zukünftigen Erlösen von Flexibilitäten realitätsnah modelliert werden? – FfE München
- Merit Order der konventionellen Kraftwerke in Deutschland (2018) – FfE München
- Abschlussbericht zum Projekt “Merit Order der Energiespeicherung im Jahr 2030” veröffentlicht – FfE München
 European Energy Exchange (EEX), „EU ETS Spot, Futures & Options,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/de/maerkte/umweltprodukte/eu-ets-spot-futures-options.
 European Energy Exchange (EEX), „Gas: Futures market data,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.powernext.com/futures-market-data.
 European Energy Exchange (EEX), „Power Futures,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/strom/futures.
 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), „OPEC Basket Price,“ 07.04.2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/40.htm.
 GEMB Gesellschaft für Emissionsmanagement und Beratung mbH, „Emissionshändler.com – Die Handelsperioden,“ 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.emissionshaendler.com/de/eu-emissionswissen/eua-im-kreislauf/die-handelsperioden. [Zugriff am 07.04.2022].