CCUS market ramp-up in Germany – Where will the CCUS market ramp-up in Germany be at the end of 2025?

As part of the “CCUS Development Pathways” project, the FfE investigated the ramp-up of CCUS technologies in Germany on behalf of Bayernwerk, Gunvor Raffinerie Ingolstadt, RWE Generation SE, and Stadtwerke Rosenheim.

The analysis in the white paper follows a three-step approach:

1. First, the target scenario for the CCUS market ramp-up in Germany and Europe is outlined. This is based on national climate protection targets, sectoral decarbonization strategies, and the expected emission reduction contributions from CCUS. The target scenario serves as a reference framework for outlining the necessary technology ramp-up, infrastructure, and time milestones.
2. The second step is a reality check to compare these target scenarios with current project developments. This involves looking at specific pilot projects and initiatives along the entire value chain – from CO₂ capture and transport solutions to utilization or storage. This reality check shows where Germany stands today, what technological and infrastructural progress has been made, and where the biggest gaps between the target scenario and implementation exist.
3. A final change of perspective to the stakeholder view highlights the drivers that exist or are necessary to drive further ramp-up and ensure the successful establishment of a CCUS market along the entire value chain.

Key messages

1. CCUS technologies are an indispensable component in achieving climate targets, but still need to establish themselves.
   Technologies for CO₂ capture, utilization, and storage are essential for emissions that are difficult to avoid, particularly in the cement and lime industry and in thermal waste treatment. Nevertheless, the ramp-up is still in its early stages, with subsidized pilot projects and a lack of comprehensive infrastructure.
2. The cement industry is playing a leading role in testing CCUS technologies.
   While early pilot plants initially use amine scrubbing for CO₂ capture, in the medium to long term, oxyfuel processes and other innovative approaches are being further developed and implemented. These projects provide important insights into scaling and cost reduction potential, but also show that no technology has yet been able to clearly establish itself and that there is still potential for development.
3. The drivers for the CCUS market ramp-up are evident, but could be more effective if implemented consistently.
   Regulatory instruments such as EU emissions trading, funding programs for pilot projects, and the creation of legal certainty, for example through the KSpTG, are decisive factors in the CCUS market ramp-up. The development of a CO₂ infrastructure and maintaining social acceptance for these technologies are also important. The interaction of these various drivers can enable the transition to a functioning CCUS market.

Conclusion

The analysis shows that a target vision for guiding the ramp-up of the CCUS market in Germany and Europe is emerging and that the first projects are currently being implemented. The identified drivers offer the opportunity to further accelerate the ramp-up of the CCUS market and move closer to the target vision.

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) has become a central component of European and German climate strategies in recent years. The analysis shows that CCUS plays a crucial role, especially for sectors with unavoidable process emissions, such as the cement and lime industry and thermal waste treatment. Without these technologies, climate targets cannot be achieved. Nevertheless, the ramp-up of CCUS is not a sure-fire success, but requires further efforts in politics, business, and society.

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