Modelling the private households sector and the impact on the energy system

Presentation and Paper at the 41th IAEE International Conference in Groningen, Netherlands

Presented 12th of June 2018

Jochen Conrad, Simon Greif

The project Dynamis focuses on the development of methods that make it possible to evaluate the cost efficiency and savings potential of various measures for CO2 abatement under the changing framework conditions of the energy system. In addition to the classical technical and economic parameters, the focus of the analysis is on the dynamic interactions of the measures with the energy system. To take this focus into account, the Research Center for Energy Economics is developing a model of the German energy system that combines its optimisation models of the energy supply with four sub-models of the energy consumption sectors industry, commerce, trade and service, transport and private households.

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Figure:  Schematic overview of the stock and flow sector model of private households

With that in mind, this paper describes the development and implementation of a methodology for modelling the costs, emissions and load profiles of measures to abate CO2 emissions in the private households sector. Due to the high share in total emissions, the focus is on the heat supply for households. The Figure shows a schematic overview of the stock and flow sector model. The Initial State of the sector defines the starting point of the simulation. Based on this, the changes (flow) of the sector states (stock) can be simulated in annual simulations, taking into account sector-inherent interrelations and limitations. The results of this simulation are load profiles, costs and emissions, which are transferred to the models of the energy supply sector in steps of 5 years.

The presentation of the paper is freely available at:

http://iaee2018.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Jochen-Conrad.pdf

The paper itself is available under IAEE copyright at:

https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/proceedingssearch.aspx

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