Electrification and coal phase-out in Germany: A scenario analysis

Presentation and Paper at the 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM) in Lodz, Poland

The electrification of fossil fueled processes and applications is frequently quoted as an essential component for the deep decarbonization of the German energy system. A prerequisite for decarbonization through electrification is low-emission electricity. In the German case, this leads to the so-called "electrification dilemma", as both a reduction of the emission-intensive conventional power plant park and the significant increase in electricity consumption are driving the demand for RES and guaranteed capacities drastically. In a simulation-based scenario analysis, two measures to reduce emissions in power generation in a high electrification regime are compared: CO2-allowance pricing and a lignite phase-out. Using the DC power flow formulation, the effects on the German transmission grid are determined. The results show that both the coal phase-out and an increase in the CO2-prices lead to a significant reduction in the average CO2-coefficient of power generation. Simultaneously the capacity gap increases significantly, but only for a few hours per year.

 

schematic representation of the researched scenarios and results

Figure: Schematic representation of the researched scenarios and results

 

The analyses were carried out as part of the Dynamis project.

Due to copyright restrictions, the full paper cannot be displayd here. It will be accessible via https://ieeexplore.ieee.org.

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