Projection and regionalization of technologies for the supply of building heat in Germany
Motivation
According to §12b of the Energiewirtschaftsgesetz (EnWG – German Energy Industry Act), the four transmission system operators (TSOs) 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT and TransnetBW are obliged to draw up a Netzentwicklungsplan Strom (NEP – Networkdevelopment Plan electricity) every two years. The purpose of the NEP is to plan the German extra-high-voltage needs-based. Electrification in the heating sector through key technologies of the heating transition such as heat pumps can have a significant impact on this. For the NDP 2025, a comprehensive regional analysis of the development of building heating in Germany is being carried out for the first time as part of this study on behalf of the TSOs.
Project Objectives
The aim of the study is to develop and implement a methodology that can be used to project and regionalize building heating demand and the corresponding distribution of heating technologies within Germany. The focus is on technologies that are linked to the electricity infrastructure and on the private household (pHH) and tertiary sector (GHD). In the course of the study, the effects of current legal framework conditions will be taken into account, various development paths (scenarios) will be developed and relevant key figures and parameters will be identified in technological, spatial and annual resolution. The spatial resolution at municipality level is achieved with the help of detailed regionalization logic. In addition to building heating, an estimate will also be made of the regional development of climate cooling demand influenced by climate change.
Methodology
The basis for the regionalization are transformation paths for the total heat demand of buildings in Germany, divided by final energy sector (private households / tertiary), application (space heating / hot water) and heating technology. Based on the status quo in 2019, three scenarios are developed in cooperation with the transmission system operators up to the target year 2045, which differ in terms of assumptions regarding renovation rates, decarbonization speed, importance of district heating networks, heat pump ramp-up, development of biomass or the availability of hydrogen. The heating technologies and energy sources considered are renewable energies (biomass, solar thermal), natural gas, heating oil, coal, district heating, hydrogen and electrical energy (heat pumps, direct electricity heating, night storage heating).
A model based on the FfE geodatabase FREM is being developed for the regionalization of the transformation paths of Germany at municipal level. Various data sets are used to determine regional indicators. Building-specific data models from FfE on heat demand, heat pump potential and district heating network potential play a special role. Other data sets such as the results of the 2022 census and the development of living space and population are also included.
Results
As a result, the heating demand in the building sector for the support years 2019, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 is available for the three scenarios, differentiated by final energy sector, application and heating technology and regionalized at municipal level. Other regional parameters such as the number of heat pumps are also provided.