06.2023 - 02.2024

Modelling of emission pathways

Allianz has developed the open source Sectoral Assessment of Multiple Emission PATHways (SAMEPATH) tool to provide business-relevant data on future developments in sectoral climate finance at regional resolution. The SAMEpath tool is a product of the Allianz Research with the aim of creating a comprehensive open database for analyzing the development of climate pathways and the required investment needs for a green transformation of the economy. It examines a large number of variables from various climate models and visualizes how they would develop if the various climate path scenarios were to occur.

Project Contents

SAMEPATH also shows the greenhouse gas emissions of various sectors. The emissions show the annual greenhouse gas emissions of a company or, in this case, the entire sector. Direct emissions (Scope 1), upstream, energy-related emissions (Scope 2) and upstream and downstream emissions in the value chain (Scope 3) are taken into account. As part of the project, the existing methodology was reviewed and expanded to include development paths for sectoral emissions.

Input-output data from the OECD is used to determine the Scope 1-3 emissions of individual sectors. The direct emissions of the individual sectors and the economic interdependencies between the sectors are taken into account. Using the methodology applied in the project, emissions that arise in one sector (e.g. steel production) can be attributed to the sectors in which the products are used (e.g. steel for the construction industry, automotive industry, etc.). In this way, the upstream Scope 3 emissions can be calculated.

Integrated Assessment Models are used to estimate the future development of sector emissions. The scenarios of the “Network for Greening the Financial System” (NGFS), which are widespread in the financial sector, are used for this purpose. By assigning the modeled economic sectors to the OECD sectors, forecasts for the development of CO2 intensity can be presented for each NGFS scenario, broken down by Scope 1-3 for all sectors under consideration for 2025 to 2100.