12.2023 - 02.2024

Hydrogen-Market-Study for Southern Germany


Hydrogen plays a crucial role in achieving national and international climate goals. To enable its production and utilization, the development of the corresponding infrastructure is necessary. For planning implementation projects, it is important to estimate the regional demand for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives.

A market study was conducted for the French transmission system operator of gas, GRTgaz, to assess future hydrogen demand and existing hydrogen strategies. The study also examined the transformation plans of regional industries and municipal utilities. Subsequently, the hydrogen demand was modeled by sectors. The study focused on the southern German states: Rhineland-Palatinate, Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, and Saarland.

Figure 1: ©FfE, pipeline geometries adapted from FNB Gas, 2023, Administrative boundaries: Geo-Basis-De, BKG 2017

Step 1: Hydrogen Market Study

As part of the project, core statements about the hydrogen market situation were synthesized from relevant publications. The market study includes an analysis of H2 strategies at the European, national, and regional levels. Specifically, publications on the national hydrogen strategy by the BMWK and network operators were considered. Additionally, the strategies of individual federal states were summarized. The analysis also incorporated transition plans from selected municipal utilities and industrial projects. In summary, Step 1 provided a comprehensive overview of the current market situation and existing project initiatives.

Step 2: Modelling hydrogen demand

Using energy system models developed by FfE, the hydrogen consumption in the five federal states was estimated until 2050. Two scenarios were utilized: a hydrogen scenario and an electrification scenario to represent potential future developments. The energy system model covers the sectors of industry, transportation, buildings, and transformation, providing hydrogen demand estimates with high regional resolution based on sector-specific transformation assumptions. These estimates were subsequently validated by comparing them with modeling results from other key German energy system studies.