Energy Transformation of Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle: Trans4In 2.0 – An Update of the Trans4In Brief Study
The Bavarian Chemical Triangle is one of the most important industrial regions in Bavaria and is home to numerous energy-intensive companies. In the course of the targeted decarbonization, the region faces decisive structural changes. Transforming the energy-intensive industry requires a profound restructuring of the energy infrastructure. Well-founded planning of this transformation, involving all stakeholders, is essential to harmonize security of supply, competitiveness, and climate targets.
Against this backdrop, the Trans4In study – Energy Transformation in Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle – conducted its first analysis in 2022 to determine the future energy needs and infrastructure requirements that can be derived from the transformation plans of companies in the chemical triangle. Since then, key framework conditions have changed: rising energy prices, subdued economic prospects, new regulatory requirements, and adjustments in infrastructure make it necessary to update the previous assumptions.
The study Energy Transformation of Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle: Trans4In 2.0 – An Update of the Trans4In Brief Study therefore reassesses the transformation plans and future energy demands of the companies considering current developments. The aim is to provide a robust basis for decision-making regarding the strategic design of the electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, and CO₂ infrastructure in Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle.
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“The study “Energy Transformation of Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle, Trans4In 2.0” makes an important contribution to shaping the energy future of the Chemical Triangle. Based on a survey of companies, concrete electricity and hydrogen pathways were identified, providing insights into the infrastructure required to achieve the climate targets in the Chemical Triangle.“
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“Updating the Trans4In study is essential to underpin discussions and decision-making with the latest findings. Crucial parameters have changed, particularly in the last three years. In addition to its findings, the study offers additional added value: networking among participants. This exchange promotes trust and new ideas.”
In both the hydrogen and electricity pathways, energy demand and connection capacity are increasing
The Trans4In 2.0 study defined basic assumptions for the electricity and hydrogen path scenarios. It took into account the perspectives of stakeholders, competitive energy prices, potential infrastructure restrictions, and a hydrogen core network. Building on this, the temporal development of energy requirements and connected loads for electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen in the Bavarian Chemical Triangle was analyzed up to the year 2050.
Development of Energy Demand
The temporal development of energy demand examined in the study is illustrated in the following figure. Depicted are the demand trajectories for electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen in two alternative transformation pathways – the electricity pathway and the hydrogen pathway – along with the associated CO₂ emissions and reductions. The visualization highlights key trends in energy demand within Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle. Supported by the rollout of the hydrogen core network, hydrogen demand is projected to increase significantly from the early 2030s, while natural gas demand steadily declines. At the same time, electricity demand rises considerably in both the hydrogen and electricity pathways.
Development of Connection Capacity
The figure below illustrates the projected development of connection capacity in Bavaria’s Chemical Triangle based on the underlying assumptions. In both the electricity and hydrogen pathways, a marked increase in electricity connection capacity can be observed from the 2030s onward, driven by the growing electrification of industry. In parallel, the demand for hydrogen connection capacity also rises, particularly due to the integration of a hydrogen power plant for peak load coverage from 2040 onward.
The expansion of energy infrastructure and the availability of affordable energy are prerequisites for a successful transformation |
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Expansion of Energy Infrastructure as the Backbone of Transformation in the Chemical Triangle:
In the course of the transformation, stakeholders anticipate an increasing energy demand, particularly for electricity and hydrogen. Forward-looking development of electricity and hydrogen infrastructure is therefore essential for the successful economic transformation of the region. Industrial partners support and rely on the infrastructural framework of the hydrogen pathway to meet hydrogen demand in the early 2030s through interregional import routes. |
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Uncertainties delay short-term transformation initiatives:
Companies are facing global competition. Uncertainties, particularly regarding the development of energy prices and the international political situation, are dampening optimism and slowing down the implementation of transformation measures in the Chemical Triangle. |
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Transformation Measures Conditional on Economic Frameworks
The scenarios considered in the study assume that energy prices are fixed. However, the actual implementation of the transformation measures depends largely on their economic viability and thus on energy prices. |
Key Findings from the Excurses
In addition, the Trans4In 2.0 study examines carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), the requirements for a regional hydrogen storage facility, and the integration of a hydrogen power plant to cover peak electricity demand. From this analysis, the following key insights emerge:
Carbon Management
- Viewed in isolation, the companies in the chemical triangle are a source of CO₂ in the current scenarios.
- Considerations for a CO₂ infrastructure must take into account other regional CO₂ sources and potential transit volumes.
- The development of (new) CCU potential in the region that deviates from the scenarios depends, among other things, on the regulatory framework, which is still to be clarified, and on possible cross-company CO₂ buyers.
H2 storage
- Industrial hydrogen demand shows a moderate seasonality, which could be balanced either through time-variable interregional supply or by a regional hydrogen storage facility with a working gas volume of 90–275 GWh.
- An H2 power plant would significantly increase the working gas volume required for storage.
H2 Power plant
- A gas-fired power plant could be built in a two-stage expansion.
- The long-term plan is to operate it with hydrogen. This would result in an additional annual demand of 4.9 TWhH2/a in 2040.
