Carbon Management in Bavaria

The path to a climate-neutral society requires strategies in industry and the energy sector that go beyond mere electrification measures. Particularly difficult or unavoidable emissions, for example from lime or cement plants, make it clear that without carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), it will be difficult to achieve climate targets while maintaining industrial sites. Against this backdrop, the Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft mbH (FfE) conducted a study on behalf of Bayernwerk on a possible CO₂ collection infrastructure in Bavaria. The result is a proposed concept for CO₂ transport in a specific model region, taking into account the direct and indirect costs of various transport modalities along the CO₂ value chain.

Model region for developing a CO₂ collection infrastructure

In the future, large amounts of CO₂ will probably be transported via a CO₂ transport network of pipelines, as this is the most economical mode of transport. Smaller, decentralized CO₂ sources will therefore require a multimodal CO₂ collection infrastructure in order to feed into the supraregional CO₂ transport network. To illustrate what such a CO₂ collection infrastructure might look like, a model region in Bavaria was selected and a holistic concept for its potential CO₂ sources was designed.

The area shown in Figure 1 in the Bavarian-Thuringian border region with various industrial sites was considered. These include CO₂-intensive sites such as lime and glass works, gas-fired power plants, and thermal waste treatment (TWT) plants, but also biomass power plants (BMPP) and biomethane processing plants. The region has favorable conditions for multimodal CO₂ logistics: existing natural gas pipelines in the distribution network, a well-developed rail network, and access to the Main-Danube Canal offer a variety of CO₂ transport options by pipeline, rail, truck, and ship. Existing natural gas pipelines are potentially interesting, as repurposing these pipelines for CO₂ transport could significantly reduce costs. However, repurposing conflicts with the competing uses of natural gas, biogas, and hydrogen transport. An analysis of the respective CO₂ sources in the model region has shown that these competing uses can significantly limit the possibilities for repurposing.

Rollout of CO₂ collection infrastructure: Three phases to achieve the target 

The study proposes a phased expansion of the CO₂ collection infrastructure, based on the staggered introduction of CO₂ capture at emission sources. The rollout is divided into three phases with increasing CO₂ transport volumes, as shown in Figure 2:  

1. Start-Up Phase

In this phase, around 2030, CO₂ capture will focus on a few point sources. In the model region, these are lime plants with unavoidable process emissions, which are under particular pressure to act due to the development of ETS certificates. In this phase, the captured CO₂ is first transported by truck to a transshipment station and from there by train to potential CO₂ storage sites, e.g., offshore under the North Sea, in a northerly direction. The total amount to be transported is approximately 85 kt of CO₂ per year. In this phase, around 2030, CO₂ capture will focus on a few point sources. In the model region, these are lime plants with unavoidable process emissions, which are under particular pressure to act due to the development of ETS certificates. In this phase, the captured CO₂ is first transported by truck to a transshipment station and from there by train to potential CO₂ storage sites, e.g., offshore under the North Sea, in a northerly direction. The total amount to be transported is approximately 85 kt of CO₂ per year. 

2. Ramp Up Phase

With increasing decarbonization and possible CO₂ capture in other sectors, the need for CO₂ infrastructure is also growing. In the underlying scenario, emissions from glassworks, gas-fired power plants, and waste treatment plants are also captured, despite conceivable alternative transformation options. CO₂ is transported by truck and initial collection pipelines to rail loading stations. The combination of truck, rail, and pipeline transport requires the construction and integration of intermediate storage facilities and CO₂ processing plants. The annual transport volume increases to around 930 kt CO₂. 

3. Target Scenario

In the long term, and at the latest when CO₂ neutrality is achieved in Bavaria, pipeline transport dominates in the present analysis. A connected regional pipeline collection network feeds CO₂ into the supraregional CO₂ transport network near Erlangen. In addition, biogenic CO₂ sources (biomass power plants and biomethane plants) are integrated with the possibility of generating and marketing negative emissions. This will achieve a transport volume of up to 1.5 Mt CO₂ per year. 

Conclusion and classification of results 

The results of the study can be summarized in five key statements:  

1. The actual CO₂ collection infrastructure depends on location-specific transformation paths:
   The economic use of CO₂ capture must be examined on a location-specific basis. Regional CO₂ transport concepts can support the interaction process between industry, the energy sector, network operators, and logistics providers.
2. The target scenario is dominated by CO₂ transport via pipeline:
   In the long term, CO₂ transport via pipeline is the most economical option. Until then, interregional transport will mainly be carried out by train.
3. The repurposing of existing gas infrastructure plays a minor role:
   Due to competition for use with hydrogen, biomethane, and natural gas, new CO₂ pipelines need to be built in a collection infrastructure.  
4. The implementation of the infrastructure depends on the future market structure:
   The market structure (e.g., financing of CO₂ pipelines) has a significant influence on how pronounced the ramp-up phase will be on the way to achieving the target vision. 
5. Transshipment of CO₂ should be avoided as much as possible:
   Transshipments between transport modes require additional infrastructure and costs. Therefore, a transport concept with few changes in transport modes should be pursued. 

The study shows that many factors must be considered when establishing a CO₂ collection infrastructure at the regional level, such as the availability of supraregional transport infrastructure, the timing of CO₂ capture at different locations, and the availability of alternative transport modes. Practical implementation depends on the regulatory framework, which is currently still being developed. In addition, transport concepts must always be developed on a site-specific basis. The concept presented here therefore serves primarily as a possible concept and basis for discussion for all stakeholders involved. 

Further Information 

• Further reading in “et” – Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (05-06/2025)
• Analysis of CO₂ infrastructure requirements in Bavaria
• How could the market ramp-up for CO₂ capture, transportation and certificates take shape?