Development of electromobility

Electromobility is a central research area of the FFE and is part of numerous research projects. In the following series of articles, different topics are presented. One focus is on scenarios for electric vehicles and charging stations in Germany. Furthermore, the different charging plugs are explained and different possibilities of grid integration by controlled and bidirectional charging are described. Finally, the climate footprint of electric vehicles is discussed.

This article is the first of a series of 7 articles which will now be published successively on our website.

 

Overview of the topics of the article series on electromobility
1.   Development of electromobility
2.   Charging points
3.   Plugtypes
4.   Private and public charging
5.   Smart Charging
6.   Use Cases for bidirectional charging
7.   Climate footprint

 

The automotive industry is one of the leading sectors of the German industry. It produced total revenues of 426 billion € in 2018 and contributed around 5 % to the GDP in Germany. Due to its high direct and indirect number of employees, its high export quota and its high share of added value, the German automotive industry is regarded as system relevant and therefore has received a high degree of attention in the social, political and economic dimensions. [1]

Electromobility is one of the greatest challenges facing the industry. Electric Vehicle (EV) deployment has been growing rapidly worldwide over the past years, with the global electric car fleet exceeding 5.1 million in 2018 and almost doubling the number of new electric car sales. This trend is set to continue increasing substantially in many countries around the world. In 2018 around 45 % of EVs on the road were located in China– a total of 2.3 million, from which 1.77 million where battery electric vehicles (BEV) – compared to 39 % in 2017. In contrast, Europe accounted for 24% of the global fleet, and the United States 22%. [2]

In this context, policies play a critical role: the Federal Government has been promoting the electrification of the German automotive market. In 2009, the National Development Plan for Electric Mobility set decisive guidelines for action. The definitive strategy was articulated in 2011 by the government program for electric mobility with the objective to put one million electric vehicles on roads by 2020 and six million by 2030. On June 2015 the Electric Mobility Act entered in force, whose main goal was to grant special privileges to EVs, such as lowering parking fees, exempting for access restrictions or allocating certain parking spaces. [3]

Since 2009, the Federal Government has established a regulatory framework to increase the attractiveness of electromobility and provided funding around € 5 billion. Moreover, for the purchase of Plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and BEV a financial incentive has been established in June 2016. It amounts € 3,000 for PHEV and € 4,000 for BEV funded one half by Federal Government and other half by the automotive industry. In 2019, both parties agreed to increase joint subsidies until 2025 to € 4,500 for PHEV and € 6,000 for BEV in electric cars costing less than € 40,000. For vehicles costing between € 65,000 and € 45,000, the incentive applied will be € 3,750 and € 5,000 for PHEV and BEV respectively. [4] [5]

 

Zeitlinie

Figure 1: Evolution of policy measures

Despite the measures implemented since 2009, the target of 1 million EVs (BEV and PHEV) in Germany by 2020 will not be achieved. In addition, after the entry into force of the Climate Protection Programme 2030, a new target of 10 million BEVs and PHEVs by 2030 has been set. While these goals are ambitious, the data show a clear trend of adoption. In the last year alone, the number of registered EVs has increased by 50 %, overcoming 340,000 passenger cars for PHEV and 83,000 for BEV. This means that the amount has increased 14-fold since 2010.

In order to get a more accurate picture of the penetration rates for electric vehicles on the German market, two scenarios have been constructed in the project Dynamis — start and FuEl. The Start scenario reflects a conservative forecast in the sense of a business-as-usual, in which no additional decarbonization efforts are undertaken. The results show values far from the target of 10 million by 2030, reaching only 5.5 million electric cars and 3.3 million plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2050. [6] Figure 2 shows the development for the FuEl scenario. The FuEl scenario is based on the recommendations of the expert commission National Platform Future of Mobility. This scenario takes into account the previous inputs, but also the implementation of new policies and techniques such as flexibility measures charge control and Vehicle-to-Grid or the increase/decrease in transport services. In contrast to the initial scenario, there is a very strong expansion of EVs, which will account for a large part of fleets by 2050. By clicking on the legend, different EV scenarios can be compared.

 

 

Figure 2: Scenarios in Germany: Fuel, Start, Exxon, ECF, ENREPR, Renew Eff, UBA E, UBA F1

 

 

Weitere Informationen:

 

Literaturverzeichnis:

[1] Mönnig, Anke; Schneemann, Christian; Weber, Enzo; Zika, Gerd; Helmrich, Robert. IAB-DISCUSSIONPAPER. Electromobility 2035. Economic and labour market effects through the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars. IAB, August 2019. Link
[2] Global EV Outlook 2019. Scaling up the transition to electric mobility. IEA, May 2019. Link
[3] General information electric mobility. Federal Ministry for Environment, Natur Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMVI). Link
[4] The future of mobility is electric. Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). August 2019. Link
[5] Randall, Chris. Increased EV subsidies go into effect in Germany. Electrive.com. February, 2020. Link
[6] Fattler, Steffen; Conrad, Jochen; Regett, Anika. Project Dynamis: Dynamische und intersektorale Maßnahmenbewertung zur kosteneffizienten Dekarbonisierung des Energiesystems – Hauptbereich. München: Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft e.V. (FfE), 2017.

 

 

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